Run differential in MLB tells the story of which teams are good & which are not - Ep. 711 06.01.26

June arrives and summer baseball begins. We're officially at the point in the season where you can't say, Well, it's still early in the season anymore. The all star ⁓ the us all star break is approaching. Teams are starting to think about what they might need to add at the deadlines. And with this week of baseball, we gotta take a look at where everybody's at. It's this week in baseball. I think we're now sixty games through the season for a lot of teams. You know, teams like the Braves are sixty through games through the season. Some teams have only played fifty nine, but a lot of teams are

you're a good bit of the way through the season and for so long a hundred games left if you look at it that way. Right, but for so long we're talking about, well, it's just April. Well it's just May. Well, April and May are over and the season is here and so if you're in last place like a lot there are certain teams are down there, you you you've got not a lot of time to fix that. And if you're a team like the Braves who've jumped out to a forty and twenty start best best record in baseball, you're feeling pretty good. And and basically the other teams in the division have kind of

not made any kind of headway and you've got a very comfortable lead right now in the National League East if you're the when you're the Braves. I think probably the biggest story individually of the week is not even an individual achievement, just merely that we had the first no hitter of the season as the Houston Astros combined for one when they defeated the Rangers nine nothing and I guess that happened. You know, I it really toast my bagels because

After our podcast last week, literally within an hour, they did that. You know, so we we put we can the thing and say, Well, there's been no hitters this year and no hitters this no hitters last year. How about that? And then it happens. Immediately. And it's a combined no hitter, which we all sit here and talk about how it doesn't really feel like a real no hitter. There is no baseball fan that is charged up about a combined no hitter. None. I mean when my team does it, I'm like, Cool. Okay.

Yeah, that's nice. And but then the you know the trivia question will end up being like, can you name the guys who pitched in the combined no hitter? And most fans won't not going to be able to. Exactly. So yeah, three Astros pitchers did that ⁓ in in the game on last weekend. ⁓ and there hasn't been one since, at least not today. No, there has not yet to be one today. And obviously that was t Tatsuyamai was the starting pitcher in that game and he gave six great innings. It's just usually the relievers people don't give as much credit to in those situations 'cause

coming in as a reliever, having in anyone who don't give up any hits is sort of the expected outcome. Exactly. And and you the I I was gonna I've been giving it to the Astros a bit thinking that

their lack of hitting has has been their problem, but it's actually been the pitching has been terrible. They've actually scored a bunch of runs. They're one of the better offenses. It's just they actually scored the most runs in the AL West. It's just they just don't pitch well. And and they've got right now the guy who is right there for the triple crown. I talked about this about a month ago. Right. So right now Jordan Alvarez is end of May Jordan Alvarez triple crown could be a possibility. End of May. it's definitely a possibility. And and maybe that's just 'cause Aaron Judge hasn't hasn't heated up. He actually has had a fairly

Cold May compared to the the earlier part of the season. Not that he isn't hitting home runs. He's got he's got a bunch of homers, but you know, he hasn't yet got the average going where you expect from him. He's only hitting two forty six with seventeen homers, which for Judge is actually quite a bit below what we've come to expect from him. We expect him to be more in the Jordan Alvarez area where he's at third three hitting three one with twenty homers.

So ⁓ we we do have a streak going on right now. Well one ended last week, right? The the Nick Kurtz streak of times ⁓ getting on base ended at forty eight games, which we talked about that ha was still ongoing. So but that was a cool thing and then and certainly a good reflection on Nick Kurtz. and Christopher Sanchez right now of the Phillies and I don't think he's pitched today yet. I think he's pitching tomorrow.

⁓ on Monday. Christopher Santos has forty four and two thirds scoreless innings in a row, which is the most in Philly's history, ⁓ or and the seventh most ⁓ since nineteen twenty. R right, and he he is approaching the kind of status where it's like if he keeps this up for a little bit, he might have the Cy Young already locked up this year. Where you'd have to have like as long as he doesn't fall apart completely in the second half, i it's gonna be interesting to see the argument to give it to somebody else because he's just been so

dominant this year. I I think it right now, I mean, we talked about Mason Miller jokingly, not even so much jokingly in the first month of the season, going could a relief pitcher, not a starter. And it's it's gonna be harder for a relief pitcher, even as good as Mason Miller's been and he's remained that good. you know, if Christopher Sanchez sustains this for the rest of the season, there's no question about it. And Paul Skeens has not really yet got into gear yet, and I don't know that he's gonna he's gonna have to have a heck of a

I don't know, s two second, two thirds of the season. He's gotta have one of those like impossible go into a tree second halves of the year where he goes, you know, has like twelve starts and goes like eleven and no or something. But kind of exciting, you know, to s to see that the the longest consecutive scoreless streak. Do you know who the who has that record? Orl Hersheiser?

And he did that in nineteen eighty eight at fifty-nine, I think fifty nine in a third innings, and he beat another Dodgers record to do that. Don Drysdale had held the record for a bunch of years when Hershey's. Yeah, and then and they called him old Pete. ⁓

Which, you know again, sounds like a president, not a pitcher. His name is Grover Cleveland Alexander. When you hear the name Grover Cleveland Alexander, are you not imagining a very old black and white photograph of a white guy with like a weird mustache and like a strange hat on his head right now? Because that's what we're all sitting here thinking. Strike guard artist in the Hall of Famer, one of the greatest right-handed pitchers in National League history. And I say that, you know, in in full seriousness. So ⁓ we've also seen that the ⁓ our man Otani is still doing Otani things.

⁓ and you there's some been some question about should he bat on the days that he pitches? Or is he getting too tired and maybe we should bat him instead of leadoff? We should bat him third so that he can rest a couple minutes after he pitches the top of the first. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He put that to bed. Yeah, so he came up in the game last week and and well, he let off the game with a home run and then he went on to pitch six, no hit innings. And and he was annoyed. He was annoyed that he walked a few people that didn't allow him to go deeper in the game.

This guy That's the kind of guy. So talking about the Cy Young in the National League, I I I think we're all kinda almost like rooting for that to happen to a degree. Right. So and you know, it's like let's see, what haven't I done in baseball yet? I sold fifty bases, I've won back to back MVPs. I have had fifty homers and fifty stall bases in the same season. I haven't won a Cy Young yet. Yeah, let me do let me do that. Like he could just decide to win the Cy Young. So it it it is unbelievable. And and and if he had to turn himself into a gold glove outfielder

Don't you think he could do that too? I I at this point I don't want to doubt against the man, so I'm not gonna say, yeah, he probably can. ⁓ what else? We saw ⁓ a Friday night exciting night in Major League Baseball with four walk off home runs. Including one by our New York Mets. One by MJ Melin Melendez of the Mets, and Miguel Vargas of the White Sox and Ezekiel Tovar of the Rockies and Brian Retals of the Pirates all did that. And I'm not saying that's a you know

This is cool. It's a cool thing and boy, you know, Major League Baseball and and against the fact that we're having now you know back and forth between on the C BA where the players, you know, made their ⁓ you know entreat and then the owners came back and they seem about fifty million light years apart, which is going to be ⁓ and and you see a night where have four back to back home runs, you're thinking, don't mess this.

Up. We've got a great game. People are loving what's going on right now. And and everybody's thinking it's coming. It's coming. The badness is coming. They're gonna they're gonna Honestly, it almost kinda bugs me because it feels like now we just have to spend the entire year talking about this and like every good thing that's happening baseball is just like, man, this is gonna suck when we're locked out next year. Well, I think that's a great point 'cause I think I think okay, so let's let that be the last time we talk about this.

Right, because it doesn't have to happen until December first when the C B A ends. And we can nothing's gonna happen. Right, we can talk about the C B A. I think it's interesting to talk about. We should talk about some of the offers that are going back and forth. But the idea that somehow the looming lockout that is likely to happen spoils the things that are going on this season. The only people that are doing that are we the fans letting that happen. Well, I I I wrote a post a while ago when I was toying with the idea that, you know, a salary cop, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea because my feeling was that the

the lower ranked players, the lower level players were gonna get, you know, better treatment, you know, if if there was a salary floor and their salary and and and the proposal that came out had the minimum salary going from seven hundred, eight hundred thousand dollars now to a million five. So and we already see that there are players that are getting ⁓ tied up earlier in their careers to try to save money in the long run. ⁓ even guys that haven't made it to the major league. So younger players are starting to get paid earlier than they did before, which I think is a good thing overall.

But the more I think about the salary cap and and we can get into this, the more I think it's it's a t it's a bad idea for baseball. I'm with the players on this. ⁓ and and I and I feel like th this not gonna make baseball better to have a salary cap in major league baseball. It's not gonna get the Kansas City Royals to win the World Series because we have a more level playing field. That that is not the way it's gonna happen. I and I don't and I don't I don't think the salary cap is the answer.

No, and I think most people would ag I I don't think the owners would agree. Right. Well no, the owners would agree with that because they don't want to be in a place where they feel compelled to spend money. And and the story going around is, you know, well there hasn't been a ⁓ bottom fifteen media market team that's won the World Series since the two thousand fifteen Royals. And in fact if you go back further, there hadn't been one in in quite a few years before that. So, you know, the what we talk about is media markets and and so because there's more

revenue availability in those bigger media markets, particularly in the in the big ones, you know, it's unfair that those teams get to spend as much as they want. Well, look, we've seen teams screw that up a a million times. Right, right, right. Cause 'cause let's put it this way, if we put the list of the teams in that are in the fifteen bottom media markets there, there's gonna leave a lot of names on that list where you're going, Yeah, I'm pretty sure your media market is not the biggest reason for your failures. Like I I'm sorry, I'm gonna have a hard time

Listening to the Colorado Rockies tell yeah, no, it's because we don't have enough media market. That's why we're not good at baseball. And and and we we should talk about more more about this on another podcast, maybe. But I think that you know the the idea that you're gonna s you know spend money when when you have a team that has a chance to go for it. Like let's think about the Brewers, right? Brewers have a good team, they're overachieving as they as they normally do. They're a small market team, small spending team. But where is the time when a team that is that

drops it and says, okay, we're gonna go for it this year and we're gonna take on big salaries because we want to win the whole thing and we're gonna take risks because we're still making money in the long run on our franchise valuation. And so the brewers should be trying to find a way to trade for Tarek Scoobyl. That that's the kind of thing that that they the blue the Brewers they need to think about doing that they never do. Well why are you see okay I'm gonna say trading for Tarek Schubel is a fool's error, I think. Well you think so, but I don't

Well, 'cause it's like well, 'cause you're giving up tums if you're the Brewers, especially. For the Mets it makes a little bit more sense because you're likely to spend the amount of money to then get to keep Tarek Scuble. But if you're the the Brewers, you're essentially drafting you're essentially trading all of your assets for a injury rental of Tarek Scuble when you're probably not gonna then sign him to a long term market. And and there it is, so the assumption is that they never would sign him long term. And I I I maybe the narrative needs to and I'm saying maybe the narrative needs to change. Well, who's g you're ⁓ but yeah, but how do you change that narrative? Is that

But is that Milwaukee's fault or Scott Forrest's fault? It's i both. Both. I mean it's it's Milwaukee's fault because we don't think they'd even entertain it.

Right, right, but but but is it fair for is it fair for the expectation to be for Milwaukee a team that has a bunch of young and upcoming talent to be like, Okay, now go put the richest contract in baseball on a pitcher coming off an arm injury and that's what you need to do to be a good franchise. Do you want to win the World Series? I don't even know if that helps them win the World Series. Did it help the Tigers win a World Series last year having Tarras? But I'm just saying you're you're you're saying mortgage your entire few there's no player in baseball, even Shohei Otani, who I think

I don't I look I don't really think one player does it. I just think you want to have a chance to win the World Series, get the best pitcher in baseball, and and you have a better chance than you did the day before. So we'll we'll talk more about this because it's gonna be an ongoing an ongoing topic.

⁓ you know, and w when and in a week where and I I was wrong last week when I said Tatis Jr. hit his first homer, I thought during during during the podcast. Well he had but he finally did that yesterday and and I guess because it was four hundred and fifty feet it means more than if it went, you know, three hundred and seventy. I think it just means that it was a good home run. Yeah, I guess he hit a home run. So he'll he'll maybe get hotter, maybe like Ronald Acunia, who hadn't done much in the way of home runs until he smashed what five and four games and got himself back on track and like like the Braves need that. ⁓

I also ⁓ I we've talked about the Cubs winning streaks, obviously, and when we got in the podcast last week, they were sliding. Well, they continued that all the way to losing ten games. So they've got two ten game winning streaks and they got one ten game losing streak. And they're kind of a meh team when you when you think about where their record is. Mm-hmm. No, it it is interesting you've seen like the last team to kinda do that and actually do really well was the Los Angeles Dodgers a couple of years ago. They had two ten g they had a bunch of loot long losing streaks in a series where they ended up winning.

It's just weird to think that a team would have that kind of giant disparity in their results like that. Yes, absolutely. I think that, you know, you you expect them to, you know, be more consistent over the long haul and not have these ups and downs in a regular season. ⁓ we had some injuries this week, ⁓ and and ⁓ I don't know that Kiki Hernandez is a significant you know, player for the Dodge, but the Dodgers probably think so. And he got back for one game and then he had an oblique injury and he's back on the shelf.

⁓ Murakami, more importantly, of the White Sox and and that that's that's a team that has overachieved clearly this year and and they have a positive run differential, which really I think is the most amazing thing. I'm gonna talk more about that a little later. ⁓ is gonna miss four to six weeks with a hamstring issue. ⁓ I don't know how long Ellie Dilla Cruz, who today left the game going to first base with a hamstring issue for the Reds. ⁓

Mets we talk about Kimbrell g being D F A'd the Mets after he pitched two innings for the first time in his career. Whoa. ⁓ and then he gets picked up by the Rays and he goes on the injured list two yeah, two days later. Right, right. Right. ⁓ and and what could have helped the Mets is Yuri Perez who kind of beat them up recently, for the Marlins on the mound, is out eight weeks now with an injury. So that's a big blow to a team that I think has aspirations of sort of maintaining what has been a really good first third of the season for them.

at this point. ⁓ and and the and the last thing I wanted to talk about injured wise is I can just take a look at the Tigers injured list. It is. They have they have a roster that is a playoff roster on the injured list, basically. Yeah, Taris Goobel, Casey Myes, Kenley Jansen, Justin Verlander, Kerry Carpenter, Glaber Torres.

Javier Baez and Brand Hutter. If you're a player in the tires tigers, you're probably going on the injured list. Right. Things aren't going great. So and it isn't going. I mean, I I think we we said that before. I think the Tigers, you know, they keep stumbling and bumbling and and they just don't, you know, get up anymore. So so the I'm we're gonna talk about our stories of the week, but I know you have one new one. Now I have a story for the day before we get to the story of the week. yeah, okay, wait a second. That feels like it's cheating. It is cheating because it just happened today and I happened to notice and I Well, it's not the story of the week because it just happened today.

So the Blue Jays outfielder Jesus Sanchez is playing right field today. And he's out there. And somebody hits a ball ⁓ over the fence. I think a home run, I guess. I I'm not sure how how it got in stands. And a little kid in the stands throws the ball back on the field and hits Sanchez in the wrist. Okay, he the kid mistakenly thought I guess he was gonna play catch with Sanchez is what I read air game.

And so Sanchez has to leave the game and and he's he's he's gone from a ball that came out of the stance. So now we know we finally got there when you know players are getting injured by stuff being thrown from kids out of the stance. Which is wild to think about. We've had a lot of stand incidents because Pete Crow Armstrong has come fli you know coming out. That's a different that's a very different sort of van incident. So so what do you have for your ⁓ story of

Well, I originally had an interesting story that I was gonna be talking about the best player, the baseball players that led the league that had the highest percentage of strikeout looking rate and the lowest percentage of strikeout looking rate. But because of our d discussion on Terek Skubel there, I just thought of a roommate way more interesting. Okay, okay. Which is how many pitchers have won the World Series in the Cy Young in the same year? How many pitchers have won the Well that that that seemingly take a long time to because I know Sandy Koufax did it. Right, right. But it's really interesting when you know Tom Seaver did it.

The th the number is twenty five. Okay. How many pitchers since two thousand have done it? Is Clay no Clay didn't win with Cy Young the year that the Doctor won the World Series, so Two. There's even two. Fran Justin Verlander in twenty twenty two with the Astros. Okay. And Randy Johnson in two thousand one with the Diamondbacks. Wow. And then you had Glavin and Smoltz, who did it in ninety five and ninety six with the Braves. And those are the only pitchers since nineteen ninety to win the Cy Young in the World Series in the same year.

That just tells you how different baseball is. Whereas when you go back, and this is why I thought was really interesting, then when you look back through the seventies and eighties, the Cy Young is so very often on the World Series winning team. Gibson, Tom Seaver. Like you had all of these guys that were pitching

wa ⁓ in the world series in a cy young year. Like that was the kind of thing. So it's just really interesting to look at the spread of guys. Yeah, that is very interesting. so I I I have a a a story of the week and and I kinda ⁓ nod to you on this one because I started looking at one of your favorite things to talk about and that is run differential. Mm-hmm. Okay, so there's only two teams that have and and really I'm I'm I'm cheating. So only the Braves have more than three hundred runs scored and less than two hundred runs given up. So run differential obviously over a hundred.

the Dodgers are right there. ⁓ The Dodgers as of today are now over 'cause they've scored three five and they've given up one eighty four. So they're they're there right now. So ⁓ and and so they are far and away. The Yankees are close. Okay. They they they haven't scored three hundred yet. They haven't yet played today and they've given up one ninety nine going in today. ⁓ and so if you if you take those three teams

Basically they are far and away the best teams in baseball. And it's really interesting to look at teams and their run differentials because it really tells a story and you always are doing this and and today I just noted that okay there's some weird things. You know, so the Brewers are a positive run differential team. And that's what you'd expect. Seventy four, they have good pitching, they have timely hitting. After that, and so if they're the fourth team in com there is nobody, you know, who is over over thirty. Nobody over yeah, nobody's over thirty. The closest is the Mariners at plus twenty nine. Everybody's kinda hanging out.

Either right around even or bad. The Mariners at thirty and twenty-nine going into Sunday and they're playing the Yanke the Yankees this afternoon. They have a plus twenty-nine run differential on their one game over five hundred. Kind of makes you scratch your head a little bit. When you have other teams and that like the Rays, just I'm just the comparison 'cause the Rays are are are the interesting one to me. you know, they have, you know, the best record in baseball or or behind the Braves. Right in the American League, and they have a

Nineteen run positive, you know, with yet there's sixteen games over five hundred and you can see this like we I always talk about that example where you had the Marlins playoff team a couple years ago where they had that crazy record in one run games. You can have a season like this where like the entire year you never have a great run differential, but you just seem to find a way to win a lot of games. And that that can last

For a while, but it's n it's something that does not generally carry over season to season. And then a lot of times you see these types of teams sneak into a playoff series and then just get swung.

So and and and so to me like the the the Orioles have thirty-eight runs to the negative in that. So even though they're only twenty eight and thirty-two, that does not bode well for them going forward. The Red Sox are a team you'd look at, they're they're going, they're only five runs under. Their offense has been put And they're eight games under, so that actually is not so bad. Right. So that probably tells you they're a little bit better than their record indicates. The Guardians have a positive one run differential, yet they're seven games. That's that's the Guardians. Right. That's what they are. Right. And then you look at a team like the Mets, you know, as much as we like to dunk on them for how bad they've been this year.

twenty six and thirty-three after today. Now today is a day that definitely helped every run differential. Right, right. But they're they're now only thirteen runs under their run differential. And that's better than the Phillies. And that's with a terrible offense that they added it it is stunning to me that the Phillies have somehow scored less runs than the Mets. Right. That's what I saw. That's helped by the fact that the Mets scored a bunch of runs today. Well they're just to pass the Phillies, I said, but that the Mets They scored more runs than the Padres. As as they right.

Right. And the Padres are another team that you think, you know, okay, well that's a really good baseball team, right? Even though they've lost, you know, at least when I think about bad when I think about bad offenses, I'm like, okay, the Mets have scored more runs than the Royals. That doesn't surprise me. The injured Detroit Tigers, that doesn't surprise me. The offensively challenged Boston Red Sox doesn't surprise me. Even a team like the Mariners, like I mean, when you look at the team like that ⁓ division like the ALS, that is probably the most division offensive deficient division in baseball. Nobody in that division can score.

Well and and the Except maybe the A except maybe the AL Central 'cause they're the The Athletics are a spunky little team, right? So they're twenty eight and thirty going ⁓ as we play here on Sunday, they have a negative twenty nine run differential. It is not gonna last long for the athletics. So they're they're they're gonna go down. So to me the Mariners were the team I kept expecting and they have only gotten to the top because the other teams have not been playing very well at all. Can the Rangers with a

positive run differential sustain that? I don't know. But the Astros are negative thirty three. That's not a good sign for the Astros, especially with how good their offensive performance has been up to this point. You worry that god a Jordan Alvarez

You're two stinned on the DL like he normally takes could be a lot of trouble for that team. And the only thing that saves Matt Cotraro's job in Kansas City and their minus fifty-six run differential. That is stunning for a team that's supposed to be good is that you can't blame the manager when the appears that nobody on the team outside of Bobby Whit can write. Right. Right, right. You didn't do like the all these people that you brought up. The Jonathan India trade just did not do anything for you. Your young players at some of these other positions, Jack Consiglieri hasn't really figured out Caglione. Caglion, sorry, Caglion, not Consiglieri, God. ⁓

Gaglion hasn't really figured it out yet as far as like being a a a regular, everyday productive player. He's trying, but he's still hitting 236. Yeah, and I keep I said last week, I said, keep expecting the Royal to rally and all that. Well, they they they they showed me what they're made up by going two and eight in their last ten. Right, right. And in Vinny Pasquantino, it looks like that, you know, world baseball classic magic was just world baseball classic magic. I couldn't sustain that either. So I I think what's happened is is that you really do have the

And the have nots, and the teams that we mentioned, and I don't think anybody would be surprised to say the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Braves, and the Brewers.

Other than that, and we said the American League's having a down year. Right. The the teams we expected to be good are good with really the exception of the Mets, who had a fair number of doubters before the season and now looking like rightfully so. And the Rays, you know, and the Phillies. And the Rays, you know, deserve to be included in that because somebody else has got to be in the playoffs.

Yeah, exactly. Well, you know, the Mets are playing a little bit better right now, so it's ⁓ they're about to go out for a for a road trip to Seattle and San Diego. ⁓ I I'm not ready, I think as my friend was saying, so what what's it gonna take for you to t to believe? And I said, Yeah, two more weeks of play like this and they've won four in a row. They're not gonna win fourteen in a row. Win fourteen in a row and I'll change my tune. So yeah, we we'll we'll we'll have to expect that, you know, the teams that are you know, I I don't know who the

the team that we can't see right now is gonna come up from the you know the