Top stories OT week - 3 true outcomes & MLB better not mess this up! Ep. 708 5.18.26

Another week in the books, the baseball season marches on. Teams have asserted themselves to the top of the standings and teams have found themselves kind of sticking there at the bottom of the standings. But we're starting to see some movement and we're starting to see some magic out of San Diego. It's this week in baseball. ⁓

I think this Padres dramatic comeback this weekend, you know, they looked like they were down and out against Jacob Mizorowski in the Brewers last weekend. Yeah. But only for them to just come screaming back in that game was a big deal because they've been playing great baseball recently. And, you know, they've now especially with the Dodgers, weirdly, despite how good Shohei has been as a pitcher, they've not been tearing away from there at the rest of that division. And now, you know, the MLB West is, you know, not what we thought it was going to be, you know, a couple of weeks ago. West is.

Yeah, closer. Well, the Dodgers, you know, had the feast of the angels this weekend, so they've already won two games going into Sunday. So they've actually tied or they're just ahead of the Padres. But the Padres had a two game lead for for a short while, which surprised everybody to think the Dodgers aren't in first place. So that was kind of surprising in the first place. But yeah, the the the Padres win against and a Mizorowski was ridiculous. Right. You know, in the game. he actually leads Major League Baseball in strikeouts tied with Christopher Sanchez, who has also been

And then the Padres came back in that game. So that kind of just shows you the kind of ability they have as an offense to come back against a team like the Brewers who have been playing extremely well actually and have now become to tie the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.

And honestly, think one of the biggest stories is that the Rays just keep on winning. And we've been doubting them here. But at what point do we stop doubting them and go, hey, they're first place now in the in the keep doubting them. At least you're going to keep doubting them. I'm going to keep down. They are in first place. They were helped out by the New York Mets this weekend, who won two out of three from the Yankees. So the Yankees have not been playing so well lately before. Actually, they got to the the subway series this weekend. And Tampa does, you know, beat you in a lot of different ways.

Mirrors, know sleight of hand. I don't know what you call it, right? we've seen this before with teams and it's something that you can't count on on a year-to-year basis but sometimes teams just have a year where they find a way to win all the one-run games and Everything just feels like it breaks right for them that year It doesn't often result in a World Series title, but could get you a playoff birth Well, I think that's a really good point because the Yankees, you know I think we probably would both say right now given and even though that I picked the Blue Jays to win

We had the Yankees as a playoff team and are the Yankees look still pretty good because the other three teams beyond the Rays and the Yankees just haven't really got it together yet. Toronto, Baltimore and the Red Sox. they're getting to a point where you're going to need to get it together to such a degree now where if you don't figure it out in the next like two, three weeks, you're suddenly going to have to play a brand of baseball. You just can't expect yourself to play like, yeah, of course you could catch the Yankees in the Rays. You just have to play 800 baseball for June.

You say that all the time. Possible, just not likely. So, know, the season will be after Memorial Day weekend. You'll be about a third of the way through the season, which is kind of amazing. Right. I guess it's not shocking when you think about it's a month season. Right. Right. And so you're to have a of April doesn't count. But ask any March for that matter. Right. We've already had. But ask any fans. April definitely counts. Yes. Yes. So, you know, I think the you know, there's only really only Milwaukee has really been playing

well

over the past 10 games. You've got other teams that are there that are playing almost as well. Cleveland has managed to stay in front in the miserable A.L. Central. I think they're in first place, the only team with a winning record in that division. Same thing with the Athletics over in the A.L. West. They're the only team with a winning record in that division. The White Sox are back above 500 now. The White Sox. Yes, they're 23 and 22. They're playing the Cubs right now. But yeah, they think they lost today here on Sunday. And we will be talking about their superstar. guess you have to call him that. And right now, Munketa

Murakami because he is at the top of a list that's featuring in my story of the week. OK, well, Kyle Schwaber has been hitting balls out of the yard as well. And the Phillies have played well. They've won seven out of 10 here on Sunday. He's also there. Schwaber Schwaber is 20 home runs in the season. So he does have the Major League League in that area. And the Phillies, you know, they got over 500. The Braves still appear to be running away with it. If you can say that at this point, they're they're more than two out of three games.

where the Phillies are just barely over 500. So it's still early for it to do that. But when you have a league like they do, nine game lead is a nine game lead. but you're running out of time for things to still be early. Soon it will not be early anymore and real quick. So but the Phillies got, you know, they did get Zach Wheeler back. He's looking good. Obviously, Christopher Sanchez. And by the way, I just I noticed a game last week, Rangers Suarez, who's been also excellent for the Red Sox lately. He matched up with his former teammate

Christopher Suarez in a game this week, Sanchez and Sanchez was able to help the Phillies win the game. It's about the only thing that that range of Suarez has not done well in terms of losing a game because both of those guys and just think of the Phillies could have kept both of them. Right. Right. But they were never going to be able to do that. No. And throw in Zach Wheeler because Aaron Nola has been OK, which still for that for the Phillies, that that's pretty good when Nola's, know, you know, not your number one or your number two starter finally at this point in time.

We're going to do and you refer to it this week. We're going to do our biggest story of the week. We're to try to start a new feature of what we think for each of us. And I don't know what yours is and you don't know what mine is. And just to say, well, there's a lot of things that happened last week in baseball. What do we think are the biggest stories of the week? So why don't we do that now? Well, I was going to be talking about my story of the week is the highest and lowest three true outcome players in baseball. We're looking at who's been the best this season and who's been the worst this season.

because if you look at who's been the best, who's got the highest percentage of a three true outcome at bat, what is that just for everybody that might not be up to date on that? That means your at bat ends in either a walk, a home run, or a strikeout.

This is the bane of baseball, right? We've been talking about this for years. And one of the reasons why they fooled around with the shift banning the shift, all of those things are relatable. Now, Major League average is 34.3%. So that means the average hitter ends his at bat with a home run Walker strikeout and about 33 % of his at bats. The number one guy in the league is at 60.8%.

That's more commie because he's got 17 homers, 36 walks and 65 strikeouts so far. I think I don't know what the number is right now, but like of his total hits, I think, you know, like he's in 228 for the season before today. If you take out his home runs, I don't think he's got five hits combined, but he's got 17 home runs because when I look at the list, when you look at the highest, when you're looking at the names here at the top of the list for who are the highest three true outcome guys, let's look here.

Murakami, Kyle Schwaber, James Wood, Nick Kurtz, Ian Happ. Garrett Mitchell is kind of the outlier guy here. We'll talk about him. he's not the power hitter that those other guys. We'll talk about him in a minute, because then you've got Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Spencer Torkelson and Jorge Soler round out your top 10. That's your top 10 guys in highest percentage. Well, really outside of Soler and Garrett Mitchell, most teams would take to have any of those guys on their team. Those are all real good players that teams would like to have. And at least Soler.

there

is still a power threat where he's got 18 home runs. So I think that makes a big difference. You when you think about guys, I can say it's a ballpark. And I don't know about Mitchell, about how many home runs he has at this point. Well, that's the thing. Garrett Mitchell is the outlier guy because Garrett Mitchell has one home run. He has 22 walks.

That sounds kind of miserable. because that's because he's got 53 strikeouts. Right. So he can't have he just he doesn't hit at all. He just strikes out a lot. Or he walks. Right. Or he walks occasionally. But that's what you're seeing when you're looking at this list is that being. But what's really interesting, I think, is when you go and you flip it over to look at who's got the lowest percentage, it's not like the guys who are at the bottom are bad players, because the number one is Luis Arias.

No surprise there. Right. Number two, Ernie Clement. Mm hmm. Number three. This is a guy I think a of people. McNeil not in that category, I would think? Jeff McNeil is number 11. OK. But then you've got guys on this list like Jacob Wilson, Ildemar Arvarghis, Nico Horner, Jung Ho Lee, Luis Renfro, Andres Jimenez. Guys, a lot of these guys are contact D type hitters. Right. They're not power hitters per se. But when you look at the list, a lot of these guys now, there's an interesting guy. Twenty first on the list of lowest three true outcome rates. This is probably something that scares Lujay fans a little bit.

That's interesting. Right. But that's you he's not striking up. He's never been a guy that strikes out a lot, but he's got two home runs this year and he's walked 22 times, which is the most of anybody that's on this list. home runs is alarming. Right. That's alarming. The only guy that the outlier guy, the guy that I think when you look at that's, you know, is a guy like Liam Hicks, catcher for the Marlins. Leads the major leagues in RBI's. Right. He's got nine home runs, but he's only walked 12 times, but he's only struck out 14 times. Leads the

Major Leagues and RBI's. That counts for a lot. And he's a guy I don't think, you know, the Marlins would have said, yeah, we're going to have the RBI leader. He's going to be our catcher. Freddie Freeman is 25th in lowest three true outcome rate. So that's not necessarily a predilector. If you are low in that of it, be you being a bad player. But I think having a high three true outcome rate, is unlikely for that to ever be a marker of a bad player because it's really difficult to be somebody that is so lopsided in that and get enough of bats to qualify because that means you just look

the

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strike out as his form of out that anything out is actually one of the less dangerous outs that you can have in baseball right now because how many times does double plays are the death of your team? I would be really curious to see if you looked at like team success year to year where the good teams ranked the number of double plays hit into versus where the bad teams have ranked in the number of double plays hit into. And here's the context. I'll put it in. So our Mets have two guys who are I think notable in my mind when I see they hit into a lot of double plays.

and that's Juan Soto and Mark Vientos. And so the thing about those two guys is they have really good exit velocities when they do hit the ball. So if you went into a lot of double plays, just ground one really hard into the infield when there's a guy out for his base. You're never going to get there. And that's why we have three true outcomes, because ground balls are death. Because you would way rather strike out than hit a ground ball.

Which is weird to think about. don't want to make two outs. Right. Grants strikeout can only ever be one out. Ground balls are two outs a lot of the time. So if you're going to make an out, you're better off striking out or hitting a ball really, really high and far because then at the very worst, you're driving a guy in if he's on third base. Hit it over the shift. And there was an article in the Athletic this week to that effect, basically said what I've been saying for a long time that, you know, the banning the shift didn't have the desired outcome. Batting average is not up. It's about the same as it

was

before they did that. So in batting average on balls in play to the outfield has dropped. Right. And that's the big change is that all of a sudden it's not that the field is necessarily got better is that they were positioned more effectively, more frequently. So like we see in the infield, right, when we see a smash up the middle, that would have been a base hit 10, 20 years ago. And there's the second baseman standing right next to second base feeling and throwing it the first easy going, wait, that was a basic. Well, the same thing's happening in the outfield. Balls that were falling in there for doubles and going

into the wall for triples. Well, the guy's position over there, he just makes the catch. It's easy. Right, right. And the only way you fix that is you basically have to create what is in effect a defensive zone for each position. I don't want that. That's the only way you fix that. I'm not trying to fix that. And here's the thing about baseball. I'll go a little bit overall here as we know, because my.

My story of the week is the really horrible story nobody wants to talk about. That story is that they started negotiating the collective bargaining agreement this week for the contract that ends on December 1st. I think your betting line on Caoshi or Polymarket probably is you can't get a line on the fact that they're gonna be a work stoppage. They're very likely we will be be locked out. The players are gonna let, they're not gonna have a deal by December 1st. And so that to me is like, okay, at least we're talking about, even though they got started on it later,

than everybody else. That's that's at least they're doing something. They're doing it. But the thing is, is that this is all just on the fact that the game is in a really good place right now. So even if we want to complain that the batting average and the three to I think baseball and I think most people would agree this has been the most exciting two or three years stretch in baseball and maybe Otani and Judge have something to do with that. And maybe the Dodgers have something to do with that. Run of baseball in World Series these last few years. And that's with a really dominant team, which is

usually something people don't like. They prefer an era of parody. There's also a villain. Right. And people do like a villain and seeing the villain be taken down would be something that I think every baseball fan except the Dodger fan would want to see. So I think, you know, the base and the point is, is that baseball in such a good place. And as Jim Bowden said in his article going, basically, let's not f this up. You know, let's not lose half a season.

to a lockout that nobody really wants. And you know, baseball is obviously we love it. We think it's the best. A lot of people do. But it's not that rock solid that if you took baseball away, like I said before, and they didn't play for half a season or even more, some of the people who leave might not come back this time. Right. You shrink the bubble back in 94. But there's a lot of other things to do right now. And if you're going to try to throw in the Savannah bananas in that and say, might get enough for a lot of people.

I don't need to say I'll just go say that's good enough for me. That's not who we are. But again, so they have to be careful. They have to be aware of this and sure hope that, you know, they don't mess it up, that this doesn't become a story. But I think it's going to be so anyway, you know, back to other news and injury news, I think is is something that we like talking about and which didn't have to as much as we do. Well, Blake's now is back to the I.L. that inevitable, as most people would assume. He's got elbow issues.

⁓ In fact on the injury side even ⁓ right fielders like Addison Barger of the Blue Jays ⁓ I guess uncorked a hundred mile an hour throw to try to cut down a runner in the Brewers Blue Jays game last week ⁓ And sure enough he came up with loose bodies in his elbow and he's out So even guys in the outfield are starting to have some of these same kinds of things happen as we see happen with Blake smell ⁓ Glass now of the Dodgers apparently isn't quite as injured as we thought or That's we're saying right now. Well, he's supposed to come back

and pitch even this week, which they need because they keep rolling Roki Sasaki out there. And while he's not injured, he's just not pitching very well. Right. He might only be ever a reliever. No, I don't know about the no, no, no. So Andrew Friedman and the Dodgers are like, we are resolved that this guy's a starting pitcher. These growing pains and only the Dodgers can do this right. Like this guy's pitching to a five and a half ERA. There's growing. Given up home runs. They're growing pains. We can afford to put a guy out there that we know isn't really good right now because we think in the long run it's going to be better for our team. Who can do that?

That's what I was saying. Just because they're the Dodgers doesn't mean that this is going to for sure work and they're going to turn Roki Sasaki into a quality major.

league starter. So far there's a lot of evidence to the contrary that he's gonna do that. So the Dodgers got a do-zone that'll show me that hey he can be that. But in the biggest moments last year in the World Series the dude showed up and performed. let's be realistic if he's like this all the way to the end of the year he'll be in the bullpen come October. I think they still want to throw him out there that's for sure but as long term for the Dodgers they want him to be a starter. What else did we see last week? I wrote an article that hasn't come out yet but talking about Jacob deGrom and I don't know why I think it's

because he came and he faced the Yankees and so they started talking to him about his time in New York and all that stuff. so my take on Jacob deGrom is I loved him as a Met fan. I hoped he would go into the Hall of Fame someday. That's not guaranteed by any stretch of the imagination. And he would wear a Met's cap in so doing. And deGrom is now sort of doing, he's having a good season. Right, right. He needs to have a good season this year. He's got a great start this year. He's starting to get some

counting stats like he's got them the fifth most scoreless outings with 10 or more strikeouts and no walks since 1900. Right. That's a good list to be on with guys like Johnson and Kershaw and sale and Pedro. But I think he distilled because he didn't he came up late and because he missed some time due to injury. He really needs to have the rest of this season be good and then one more year of being a quality major league starter and he'll probably get a Hall of Fame. I think if he were good, as you say for another season that

would come close to locking it down. think if he doesn't do it, it's going to be iffy or that it gets into. Let's see how much people like him. But, winning three youngs and you know what he's doing is, you know, throwing hard, but maybe not touching 100 miles an hour. What a one every day. Right. Exactly. And the guys that do are sure to be injured, seems, at some point, know, eventually at this point. The ⁓ the first the first thing that we've seen also this year is that the, you know, the closers that are, you know, ⁓

holding up are going down and a few of the guys that are Chapman is still doing OK in Boston. Louis Varland in Toronto, who we saw in the World Series look good, has been excellent this year. That has made a huge difference for the Blue Jays. And that's the problem is that you basically try to win with your closer winning, winning, holding games, but too many closers around there are blowing games at this point in the season. So I think that the closers are

are not as reliable, they're not being relied on and put in the situations quite as much as they were. I wonder if that will shake itself out as the season progresses. You know, you don't need to lock down your closer. Maybe by August and September, if you're a good team, you want to make sure you know where your bullpen is slotted. But even though the Dodgers didn't really know where their bullpen was slotted last year and they figured it out as they went. Yeah, those Dodgers are, you know, ridiculous. So let's let's just do a quick roundabout on where the stats are at this point. We talked about the division, so we know.

Kind

of where the teams are hitting wise? Schorber leads the league in home runs. He's got 20 and he's being pursued by Murakami and Aaron judge or behind him at 17 and 16 apiece and this is a year where it looks like we're actually having right now at least a number of guys that are gonna hit above 300 with Otto Lopez leading the way at 340 most surprising thing to me and he leads the major leagues in average. I know that Ildemarco Vargas was the league leader the major league leader in

He slid down just a little bit beyond Lopez and Lopez has been a guy that the Marlins have you know been talking for a long time But the other guy that's in the top Three and he's number two is Shayla hangaliers as we're talking here on Sunday, right? He's a shocker right and as a catcher He's right now on his pace to have one of those all-time catcher seasons. He's hitting 337. He's got 12 homers He's got you know that he's gotten a thousand OPS He's looking amazing to start the year and you're really looking at what kind of year this guy might put up and just be

because I feel like you need to give him a shout out. You're done, Alvar.

as quietly as having an amazing season. And Brandon Marsh, who was leading the National League, you could have knocked me over with the proverbial feather because Brandon Marsh is never a hitter that when I'm watching the Phillies play anybody, much less the Mets going, OK, well, this is a guy you got to watch out for. But Brandon Marsh was leading the league and hitting is still batting three twenty nine. Doesn't show much power. He never has. That's something I wouldn't be surprised if that changes. And that's where I was headed is going like, you know, it's right now still falls under the category of a nice start. ⁓

Hi, as is that a great start, but we wouldn't be surprised if that changed coming up here. But I will say that the guy that I've watched play and he killed the Mets when he was in New York a couple of weeks ago for the Tigers is Riley Green. Riley Green looks like the real deal. He's having a great year. And in pitching side, I mean, you're looking at guys like the top of the league, got Mizorowski and Christopher Sanchez both leading the majors with 80 strikeouts apiece. And your ERA king right now, at least as a starter, is Kam Schlitter Schlitler at one thirty five, which is an unbelievable

I like looking at pitcher whip and so the number one guy for pitcher whip is a guy who had a terrible start in New York. was there on opening day when inexplicable and O'Neill Cruz also that they decided not to catch the baseball a couple of times. But Skeens who had that has since then been virtually unhittable. Right. You got a point seven one seven one whip for a starting pitcher which is crazy. Schlitler is right behind him at point seven and McGreevey of St. Louis which is a guy we I don't think we've ever mentioned him on this. I think we've

about him once. he's having a fantastic season for the Cardinals. Cardinals are having a fantastic One of the reasons why the Cardinals have done so well so far. I'm surprised that Imanaga is fourth in whip at .9. He doesn't walk a lot of guys. that's how you do it. Mizogowski, I'm not surprised at, you know, that he's there. And Jacob DeGrom is right there at number six. And so the guys that are at the top of the league in whip, you know, I go down the list. It's Chris Sale, followed by McLean at number eight. Davis Martin, we mentioned him a couple of weeks ago. great season for the White Sox.

Parker Messick, ⁓ you know, there's a guy for the Guardians you probably don't think about very much I know I a lot of people have not heard of him and don't realize how good he has been so all those guys have whips under one and if you in case you don't know it's pretty good It's crazy for a starting pitcher to do that. So and innings wise, know outstanding Alan Contra is at the top of the innings list for this season and I just think for this from the standpoint of a guy who's had constant injury problems ⁓

You know, he's he's showing right now that he's healthy. He actually just got jumped by Sanchez. Sanchez has as Sanchez, as we said, is being ridiculous. So Max Fried of the Yankees is injured. ⁓ He's up there still and he's up there as well. So he'll hopefully be only be out a short time as the Yankees wait for the cavalry to come in the form they got Rodin back on the other day. Didn't help. Well, that game, it didn't help. And then on a.

And just I think a couple of weeks of Gary Cole is going to come back and pitch for them. Right. Right. But I think the longer that takes to happen, the more I'm starting to really ask myself, what are we getting with Garrett Cole? I don't know. He was throwing 96 in spring training. So they are they have put the reins on this guy to stop him from probably what he really wanted to do is just throw the piss out of the ball. So they say, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Just just wait your time and all that stuff. But that's a heck of a rotation when you think about how good can split has been a good Max Fried has been everybody.

is helping you pitch in well. They're great. So the Yankees don't have much to worry about despite their losing another survey series to the Mets and they will play a 9 11 game this year. believe at Yankee Stadium, even though they're to play the Yankees, I think before them. Or maybe that's the series at that point. So, ⁓ yeah, the the pitching, you know, has sort of, you know, sort of itself out in terms of the, you the guys that are dominating in Sanchez and Rangers Suarez and the guys that we've talked about.

⁓ Yeah, and as we you know, as we look ahead, you know, we'll do a podcast, I guess, for Memorial Day weekend. And I think we'll take stock of well, at a third of the way of the season, can we really make any firm predictions? Is there any team at that point? Short of the Dodgers that we can say is a lock for the playoffs. The Braves might be another team you think about at this point. But I think when you go past that, if I'm looking at it right now, I don't know.

I think locks for the playoffs you could start to call probably. We'll see it too. We'll see next weekend because you're a third away through and there might be some locks we can call at least in the National League.