Elite bat speed leaders & how Mets are cratering - Ep. 705 - 4.21.26

So crushed after the Mets lost their 11th game in a row yesterday. We couldn't even do a podcast on Sunday like we normally do. But 24 hours later, we're still crushed, but we're to do another podcast because we like doing this week in baseball.

There's a story out there called burying the lead. So I decided not to do that. Anybody who listens to our podcast wants to either if they don't like the mess, they want to watch us suffer. Right. They do want to watch as they want to suffer with us, even though it was really because we actually got home from a flight yesterday. We were just both exhausted and we weren't ready to do it until the day. But the loss did not help. No, no. You know, when they were up one nothing late in the game on Sunday and they needed three outs from their closer Devon Williams. And you thought, OK, if they got to win a game, it's got to be one nothing. I'm good with that. They couldn't do it. I did not see that. was like, oh, we got a one nothing lead in the bottom. You just knew they weren't going to win that game. It just you know, and they you know, they got to sit with it, you know, after Sunday night. They've got to wait 48 hours to play their next game on Tuesday against the Minnesota Twins. And here's the thing. They lost 11 games in a row. And if you follow baseball at all, you know now that only three teams have made the playoffs losing 11 in a row. That would be the 82 Braves the 2017 Dodgers and the there's another team in there that did that to him. It's escaping me and No team no team has ever made the playoffs if they had a 12 game losing streak in the season The Mets could do that tomorrow night, which would effectively end the season, right? I think so more so I think it would effectively end Carlos Mendoza's job. Yeah, well every day people are right for his head He still got it. mean they express confidence in the death of death knell for them right everybody coming out being like yeah we really believe in him were all behind him and you know I think in part that he you know yesterday he pushed a lot of the right buttons you know watching the game I think he made a very questionable decision pitching to nico horner there suffering for that because everybody's questioning that for a different reason and as i was saying that so nico horner you walk into to set up the double play in the the tenth inning supposedly and with with the winning run at third base what you listen to out but for me it was like nico horner is the best hitter on their team right now why would you best right with it he's followed by michael bush who's hitting one sixty four right now why would you pitch in nico horner that doesn't strike out a lot and in that situation, you need strikeouts. And he's got that's really good at putting the bat on ball. And you have an insanely fast guy on third base with one out. Why would you pitch to him there? And just to dig it into the Mets, of course, its former MET Michael Conforto, who gets the game tying hit on a first pitch fastball from closer Devin Williams. And then it's Pete Crow Armstrong, who ends up being the winning run at their base, who scores on the sacrifice. But I think they were protected this weekend because they've been so far removed from the Mets because Edwin Diaz got hurt. 

Texas right now. not only the Mets and I made this note to myself today. you know, the Mets are playing terrible. The Astros are in last place. The Phillies are two and eight over their last ten. The Royals are in last place. And think about the Mets, the Royals and the Astros. Those were all teams that people were predicting as playoff teams. Well, not even that. But two years ago when the Mets hired Carlos Mendoza, they interviewed Joe Espada and Matt Quartraro and they ended up choosing Carlos Mendoza. All three teams made the playoffs in twenty twenty four. All three teams the Astros actually happen. those are two teams where they're bad starts. I don't think speak as poorly on their manager as Carlos Mendoza does where he's basically been the manager of the worst team in baseball besides the Colorado Rockies for the last year. And it's close. he's had he has forced the Mets have four streaks of losing seven or more games in the last calendar year and

That's just really bad if you're the manager. Yeah, yeah, and you know, because the roster is too talented for them to be losing this much. So unfortunately, you can't fire the players at a certain point. You make a change just for the sake of making a change, even if it, you know, deep down you're thinking, I don't know who we're going to. I don't know. It's going to be better. But whatever whatever this guy is saying is better than losing 11 or whatever. whatever this guy's saying clearly ain't resonating for whatever reason. So and but there is other news.

in Major League Baseball besides the Mets in their terribleness.

And the standings themselves, think, are a little bit interesting to look at. There was a point where I started looking at, gee, it's kind of like the upside down a little bit when you look at a couple of divisions, particularly with the Mets and the Phillies at the bottom of the National League. Now, the Braves being on top at 15 and seven is is is not that. And then if you look at the Reds being on top in the National League Central and the Cardinals, that's a little bit upset. And that's a division where everybody's playing really well, though. I do want to say that both the Reds and the Cardinals have negative run differentials compared to the

rest of their division, which all have way better ones. So that's the kind of lead where it could be like we look back at that in May and we're like, yes, this is more going to expectations. Well, that's right. And I think that all it indicates is that it's still wide open. The Dodgers and the Padres are at the top of the National League West with the Diamondbacks fresh off a seven and three string, by the way, are four games over. So they were at five hundred before this streak. So that's why it's too early to do anything other than are there any teams that are where you didn't expect them to be? And I would

the Cardinals there right now because we expect them to be well under 500. Right. The five games. Right. And it seems like teams like that Rangers, the athletics leading the NLAL West is less impressive because they're both at 500. So they're not like they're playing really well and we're super impressed with them. I think obviously the Diamondbacks have probably been the team that overall has been the most impressive to me just because I had the relative least amount of expectations for them to how they're currently doing where they've actually looked pretty good. Now, granted that 13 and nine record is helped by being one of these teams that's beaten up on the hapless Mets recently recently. But they were the ones that got that started and they've been playing really good baseball. You know, they've been seven and three over their last 10. But for the most part, everything else right now outside a couple of teams, outside of certain teams being way worse than you expected. The good teams are good. The Yankees are good. The Braves are good. The Dodgers are good. The Guardians are good. Right. And the tiger is that the Blue Jays, particularly the Blue Jays, who I think I pick for first place in that division. And the Red Sox, who I know you were in as up on, are at the bottom of that division. And the Orioles aren't doing so great either at 10 and 12. So, you know, that's the little somebody thought one of those three teams would at least be doing OK. I think a team like the Rays is apt to come back down. They're 12 and nine right now. And again, they're 12 and nine. We saw with the Mets, they were seven and four two weeks later. They're seven and 15 in the season's fallen apart. So a lot can change in two weeks time at this point in the season so we can't go too far in any one direction but the Mets basically have this home stand to turn things around so ⁓ nine games against teams that you should be aren't great the the twins and the Colorado Rockies and the Washington Nationals you know if you're a good team you're gonna win two out of three of those games you need to be going like six and three seven and two and sort of right the season right there and then and I think teams like the Blue Jays and the Red Sox yeah the Blue Jays are a tough situation they're injured to all hack

But you're eight and three. You can't get to eight and 13. You're eight and 13. You can't get to like eight and 17. All of a sudden then it's not that you can't play good baseball. It's just the level of baseball you have to play from that point out to get to a point where you can compete for a division or a wild card is just really not realistic to expect. where we know what division you're in to do that. Right. So if you're the Mets, the National League East is not the easiest place to go ahead and do that because the Phillies are underperforming. You know they're going to play better. They're going to get Zach Wheeler back.

You know, you expect that, you know, the the ⁓ Red Sox and the Yankees or Red Sox and the the ⁓ Blue Jays will play better eventually. It was just going to make it tougher for the Yankees to keep, you know, easily staying in first place. Right. But if they get out to a big enough lead, then it just doesn't really matter how the blue Jays or Red Sox want to do at that point. You're just like you're as long as the Yankees keep playing the same baseball they've been playing all season. You have to now play like 850 900 baseball the last 80 something games of the season. And this is not realistic to expect teams to do that.

We have seen and I think we both said before the season that Jordan Alvarez was at a critical point, you know, at his in his sort of march to sort of be one of the best players in the game because he always gets injured and boys he come out of the shoot flying with 10 homeruns to lead all of me. mean, that Astros offense is incredible, which is sort of speaks to how terrible their pitching staff has been, which is also injured, you know. Right. But but they've still been horrible to waste a start like this from Jordan Alvarez and Christian and Christian Stewart, right? Christian Javier.

I'm here. Yeah. No, the first baseman, Christian Walker. Christian Walker. I'm Right. Right. He says five home runs on this year. So you've got 15 home runs between the top two guys and two of your hitters in your lineup already this season. That's you know, that's pretty crazy to happen. You know, not even out of May and you're out of April and your team is in last place. And there was a week where Aaron judge early in the season was, he didn't get off to a good start yet. That's over. He's still he's still only hitting for him .232. Right. Which that's not going to last. But he's still got  nine home runs already. So I think mostly what you're going to see is that he's just going to start getting hits all the time and the home runs are already there. And I really want to shout out that we so many people, myself included, were questioning before this season, could Murakami hit the fastball here in the US? He's proven that he can hit the fastball. It's interesting that you brought him up because I looked at the White Sox record and said, gee, as good as Murakami has been, they're still eight and 14. So because the right the rest of the roster is still not good. But now you've got some exciting young pieces. They're major league ballplayer.

can hit major league. Right. So it's going to work out for them. It's going to work out for for. And now what happens is he has a great year this year. And if he has a good start next year. Oh, man, if you're the White Sox, can you trade him for a fortune? And especially if you're not coming along. That's an interesting point, because it makes me think about is it is it more difficult to trade a Japanese player who came over to play for your team from the N.P.B. in that maybe there's language in the contract? It's it's it's not the same, I would think. It's probably not as easy, but he would be a very very coveted trade piece if he keeps hitting like this. So ⁓ we had some some sad news with we didn't really talk about this in our prior podcast that Phil Garner passed away. So that's a bit of old news, as is Davy Lopes. both were guys I watched play in the 70s and both of them were managers major leagues as well. They had great mustaches as well. And then this past weekend, we saw a guy you watched play, Garrett Anderson, at age 53, passed away suddenly. He had a heart attack.

And I did so tragic because I don't think anybody thought anything like that could happen with him being so young as he was. Right. And he has a lot of angels, all time records. He probably have more if it wasn't for Mike Trout. Yeah. Yeah. I think he would be at the top of the angel career list as much as because I think that's the only place he ever played. Right. So he put in the time there and he kind of did it all with a steadiness. Was a stalwart player on that 2002 championship team performing well in the World Series in particular. And I think

Everybody is just shocked that that's gone. And you know, it's always sad and I'm sure that there will be I don't know what the angels have done if they will retire his number or what, but it'll be interesting to see, you know, is one of time greats for angels. Right. For sure. Exactly. ⁓ On the more positive side, ⁓ Kevin McGonigal of the Tigers went all Connor Griffin, who went all Roman Anthony because he got paid eight years for one hundred and fifty million in his rookie season. I do love the idea that eight year hundred and fifty million dollar deal is now seen as a bargain. It is a bargain. Right. Because, know, you're going to pay you're going to pay more if you wait. And, you know, you're paying. think what's starting to happen with these young guys is you're paying for the performance you're getting at the time instead of sort of taking advantage of the young player who doesn't have any leverage in getting his great production early in his career when you're paying him beans. And the and the teams are saying, you know what? Well, we'll sign him unless someone else goes silent age 28 or 29 and see if they're going to get out of him what we got of him for the first six, seven, years. ⁓ yeah, I think, you know, it's good to see it's nice to see the players get paid while they're playing. I think I don't know if this is going to be a trend that's going to last. It's probably only going to happen to the most extraordinary players. And I'm sure I wonder how much this will change the very looming potential threat of a lockout. Yeah. Yeah. Well, and I think everything that's happening right now, you have to look through the lenses. We know what are the owners doing. And to that point, ⁓ the Padres are going to be sold for just shy of $4 billion, $3.9 billion. And by the way, the difference between $3.9 billion and $4 billion is $100 million. It's not just a little bit of It's a lot of money. And so it's going to be very difficult for teams and owners to describe poverty when the Mets were the most expensive purchase recently by Steve Cohn at like $2.5 million or a billion. And so now you've got something that's almost 40 % more.

And you say well we don't have enough money to pay the money we need to have a salary cave. Who's believing that? Right exactly now. They're not necessarily saying we don't have the money to spend on that It's that we don't have the money to spend like the Dodgers have because the Dodgers can go Dodgers ownership group possesses an amount of money that only basically Steve Cohen can match and so the Dodgers have the ability to spend money that if you get into a pure unmitigated arms race then yeah, there are a lot of teams that just legitimately the Dodgers are in sort of a unique position to spend like this because they the greatest player in the game right now on their roster who is uniquely marketable to an entirely different country who was willing to take a deal that only he can take. Yeah. so the salary cap and salary floor thing will be something we'll hear about all year long. I think the owners think they're going to you know sort of ⁓ mollify the players by accepting a salary floor.

Players are going go for this. They're going to they're going to be very I think they're going to be very smart about whatever deal they accept here. I think they've got a lot they've they can kind of hold out for a couple of other things. Last weekend when we this happened after we recorded our podcast last time is that Craig Gavilan as of the of the Orioles showed his toughness as a manager getting hit in the in the face on this cheek breaking I think 14 fractures in his face his his cheek and coming out for the next game and sitting in the dugout and managing the team. Right.

Dude is bringing it strong there. His wife was like, that's amazing. That's a very sore man with a very sore jaw. I'm sure that just shows you some of the toughness you have, even if you're not on the field. ⁓ And another sale thing, the Broncos bought a 40 percent stake in the Rockies in Colorado. Now, anything that makes it different in Colorado is a good thing. And the Broncos certainly have a much better tradition of winning than the Rockies. So 40 percent. Does that actually mean anything changes?

I just think that's just a way to, know, for them to say, you know, well, we're trying something different, guess. And we have not been talking about, but should talk about the amazing closer Mason Miller, who the San Diego Padres, who is right now a guy that you actually have to think about might win the Cy Young Award, at least if you're awarding it after 22 games. Right, The way he is pitching the run he is on here is truly when people say it's like a generational run, he is a generational run.

right here. I mean, he has been basically unhittable. He's faced 38 bad as of a couple days ago, we know he'd faced 38 batters. He's allowed two hits.

He's walked two batters and struck out 27. I mean, he's got a 21.4 K per nine, which is, is off the charts. Right. This is just not reasonable. He's not yet to sun. he's yet to give up a run and he's got a 0.35 whip. His FIP is negative was negative 1.1. So basically he's the best pitcher that we've ever seen effectively every time it comes out right now. If he sustained this over an entire season, yeah, you would actually probably have to give him the Cy Young purely because no pitcher would have ever been as dominant in every single time they come out as he has been. And this started for him in the world baseball class. And it's not stopped. And it has not stopped since. So yeah, he's having one of those years that it doesn't happen often that relievers win. This is like the Gagne. This is like that Gagne year. So and Mariano Rivera, I saw, has never won a Cy Young award. He finished second a few times. He never won. The greatest reliever in history. that's.

That's more of an anomaly when I think about it than anything else. ⁓ OK, a quick update on the ABS challenge scorecard, and that is ⁓ that the challenges have been successful 706 times through Sunday and going into Monday. Fifty three percent batter challenges are successful. Forty percent of the time, just just a little less. And Fielder challenges, which are always catchers basically, have been successful 59 percent of the time. So the catchers obviously know what's going on best.

Right, which shows you that actually, it is so interesting that the batters are wrong, so have been wrong a little bit more often than they've not, but I think that's also as teams are sort of refining how they do it, because I'm pretty sure Jazz Chisholm is responsible for at least like five percent of that.

Definitely. So I didn't tease out the topic in the open, but the quick topic I want to talk about is bat speed. I did actually want to talk about one other thing here because I thought it was really interesting. It was something that you had dug up here in that they were looking at the difference between on base percentage in terms of how much it's worth compared to slugging in terms of actual value to the team, in terms of the run expectancy. And on base is actually more important to scoring runs than slugging, which when you think about it, makes a lot of sense because it doesn't really matter what you're doing with slugging you have to have guys on base to drive in exactly and and having this kind of came about because I think we The way that they do ops right which is a combination of slugging it on base percentage It basically equates the two as equal together And that's really not the case when you break it down right right because if you were looking at it that each that basically in terms of how much a point of OVP is worth more in run production terms than a point of slugging it's 1.8 to 1 so every

Every one point of slugging is actually worth, you actually get 1.8 points, you get more out of your on base than you do out of your slugging. what that's telling you is high on base guys are more valuable than you realize compared to high, and low slugging is a little bit better than high slugging low on base. And doesn't that kind of go back to Moneyball, like when you think about what Billy Bean was doing at that time? And that's why guys like Juan Soto are so valuable, amazing, because not only does he provide you elite slugging, he provides you will lead on base. And that's so valuable. And that's why Barry Bonds was what he was. Right. You know, the balls he swung out, had hit out of the park, but he swing it a lot of balls. Exactly. And the guy when he did hit him, he put a ton of speed on the ball. And that was what our topic of today was going to be was going to be bat speed and sort of how it correlates to when you hit the ball hard, you get hits. Yeah. And the guys that are at the top of the league in bat speed are the guys that are among the best hitters. I guess we're not putting in guys that swing hard and never hit it, because I don't think you're really here too much about those guys. Junior Caminero and Giancarlo Stanton, both are approaching 80. They're at 79 and 1 miles hour for a Caminero and 78.5. And that's the top 90 % of their swings is what we're doing here with this.

Right. So it's not every swing and other top speed, but so these guys consistently swing harder than everybody else. And if you've watched the swing, you'll see that. But it goes to show you that swinging hard because now we get kind of into the next group down, you'll start seeing swinging hard is not necessarily a predicator of success because you've got guys like James Wood in here. He's a great hitter. You've got Walker's having a great story. Right. But you've got Joe Adele had a great year last year, but Christopher Morrell and O'Neill Cruz. mean, O'Neill Cruz is off to a great start this year, but he's never put it together for a full season. it's not necessarily swinging hard correlates to good success because then when you go now, I think what you are seeing though is when you take this next step down. Yeah, which is 75 to 77 the second tier 78 79 just right. So right. So these guys you have Aaron judge, Schwab or Harper Soto trout. Yeah, those guys. Right. Those guys. So what that tells you is, okay, you don't need to swing harder than everybody else in baseball, but the best, the elite guys definitely swing hard.

So if you get down to the lowest lower tiers the contact oriented I just think it's interesting to talk about this So at the at the lower end of the scale 70 to 72 miles an hour So it's not that big a difference talking about 10 miles an hour at the most between the slower swinging guys and the fastest swinging guys Luis Arias to nobody's surprise is there Jeff McNeil and Stephen Kwan in fact all three guys I think you'd go yeah, I can make sense to me and so those guys are contact hitters and so they're you know, they're not gonna have because they're using the bat to help them sort of orchestrate their hits out there in a different way than swinging as hard as they can every time. So I think ⁓ it shows that the guys that swing the hardest still have to make contact, which seems obvious because we couldn't identify one player other than Christopher Morel, who probably be the only guy who swings pretty hard, but you don't hear much about him because he doesn't hit it very often. Right, but there's going to be guys, so it's a combination of being able to swing that hard is why you see these guys working out so much because by swinging hard you'll be able to get more speed on the ball when you make contact and that's what generates hits because if you hit the ball hard more often than not it's not going to find a glove unless you're in Chicago and the wind is blowing in then you can hit it well I gonna unless I was gonna say that it ain't going nowhere or unless you're a New York Met.